Speech of G.Pashayeva, Director, Conflict Research Center,
in the alumni conference "Regional Dynamics of the Black and Caspian Sea Basins
sponsored by the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs of the US Department of State (ECA) and
the Starr Foundation and hosted by the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX),
September 2-3, 2000, Odessa,UkraineThree different aspects of security issues in the South Caucasus
Azerbaijan is one of the nine countries of the "Eurasian Balkans" (Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). The region has been an important geopolitical battleground in struggles for world and regional domination, as well as the flash point for numerous ethnic, political and territorial conflicts, and truly is reminiscent of the Balkans in Southeastern Europe. But one important difference between this region and the "true" Balkans is that the former includes huge reserves of natural gas and oil, promising substantial economic benefits for those countries with real influence in the area. As part of the region's rapid development, plans call for establishing oil and gas pipelines and transportation lines along the historic Great Silk Road. Because of potential developments, various countries have a strong interest in finding resolutions to the conflicts currently dividing the countries in the region.
The twelve-year conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is among the most complex in the region. It is the first and the longest-running conflict occurring in the territory of the former Soviet Union. By its nature this conflict can be described as typically irredentist, that is a territorial dispute. Of the many internal and external factors causing the conflict and influencing its development, two have been crucial: firstly, the interests of the traditional colonial power, Russia, which considers the area to still be within its sphere of influence and tries to subordinate both parties in the conflict to its control, and secondly, the very strong support of the Armenian party to the conflict by its large and well-organized Diaspora in the West, whose goals may be different from those Armenian locals in the area of conflict.
The armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has had certain consequences:
- Very severe population dislocation: there are huge numbers of refugees (from both sides) and internally displaced persons (mostly from Azerbaijani side);
- Very severe damage to the material and cultural resources, not only in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also in the occupied Azerbaijani territories;
- The break of full relations with Armenia from two sides: Azerbaijan and Turkey
- Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, passed by the US Congress in 1992, preventing American government aid of any kind (including humanitarian) to the government of Azerbaijan.
Thus, Armenian forces seized 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh itself (which constitutes five percent of Azerbaijan's territory) and seven other districts lying outside the autonomous region. Some estimates put the number of dead on both sides at about 30,000. Since 1994, when a cease-fire was achieved, many attempts have been made to find a political solution to this conflict. The conflict has been frozen - diplomacy at work.
There are three different aspects of security issues in the South Caucasus related to local, regional and global levels at present.
First of all there are the different positions on security issues between the countries of the region in the local level, especially it concerns the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Being independent states for only a short time, these countries are small and to some extent vulnerable. Whether it wants this or not, Armenia today Russia's last loyal friend in the region. Having opposed itself to Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia was forced to seek Russia's patronage. The latter employed the situation to place its military bases on Armenian territory while supplying the country virtually free of charge with the latest weapons. This is the main destabilizing factor, which complicate the security environment within the region. Thus, one of the great challenges ahead would be to provide a security pact for the region that excludes any foreign military presence.
Caspian hydro-carbon resources could bring security and development to the region as well. With regard to Armenia and Azerbaijan, oil can contribute to the peace process as well A resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could open significant trade and other opportunities for Armenia.
A second aspect of security issues in the South Caucasus concerns the contradictions among regional powers for control of this region. It is extremely important to underline the specific roles of each of the regional players - Russia, Turkey and Iran - for domination in the region during the centuries. The emergence of Newly Independent States probably raised the question of a renewal of the tripolar contest among them. There seems to be some Russian-Iranian cooperation in the South Caucasus which is based on a common approach to politics related to Azerbaijan. It is illustrated by the close relation of Shi'i Iran with "Christian" Armenia despite its struggle with "Shi'i" Azerbaijan for control of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time Russia uses as justification for its military presence in Armenia the mythical Turkish threat against this country opposing the mounting Turkish economic influence in the South Caucasus.
A third aspect is that the South Caucasus and Caspian region can be seen, after the break up of USSR, as creating a "crush zone" or "shatterbelt" between NATO and Russia. This brings into focus the very substance of the future relationships between the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States in this particularly issue. Thus, it is important to take into consideration how - constructively or destructively - will the relations between these entities be developed.